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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still